Klitschko-Arreola Analysis and Prediction

Hasim Rahman went from 20-1 underdog to undisputed, heavyweight world champion in April of 2001 with a fifth-round knockout of Lennox Lewis -- an upset that rivaled Buster Douglas' over Mike Tyson 11 years earlier.

On Saturday night at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, Cris Arreola will be attempting a victory of similar magnitude when he steps into the ring opposite World Boxing Council champion Vitali Klitschko.

A win over Klitschko would make Arreola the first heavyweight champion of Mexican descent.

Arreola would join John Ruiz, a Puerto Rican, as only the second Latino to earn the crown and become the most celebrated American-born titlist since Rahman, with whom he once sparred.

Klitschko weighed a chisled, yet career-high 252 pounds at Thursday's weigh-in in Los Angeles, while Arreola was 251 pounds.

Like the 6-foot-3 Rahman, who was 28 going up against the 6-foot-5, 36-year-old Lewis, the 6-foot-4 Arreola (27-0, 24 knockouts) is 28 and an overwhelming underdog going against a taller man in the 6-foot-8 Klitschko (37-2, 36 KOs), who at 38, enters his third bout after an absence due to injury of nearly four years.



Rahman's victory injected excitement into a division which, at the time, was dominated by Lewis, an Englishman unpopular with Americans, who held the WBC and International Boxing Federation titles.

Rahman's triumph also came at a time when the notoriously boring Ruiz of Boston was fending off an aging Evander Holyfield for the World Boxing Association crown.

As the new champ, Rahman displayed all of the characteristics a hometown looks for in its sports heroes -- a nickname, "The Rock," as well as roots in the Baltimore streets and the rural neighborhood where he initially raised his three children with his wife.

Similarly, Arreola is the American hopeful for a division whose champions are of Russian decent. Klitschko's younger brother, Wladimir Klitschko, 33, holds the IBF and World Boxing Organization titles, and Russia's 7-foot Nicolay Valuev, the WBA crown.

Nicknamed "The Nightmare," the heavily-tattooed Arreola still is beholden to his native Riverside, Calif., his young daughter, and the parents who immigrated here from Mexico so that their child could have a better life.

No American-born heavyweight has held a title belt since 2007, when Shannon Briggs was briefly WBO king. Ruiz held the WBA in 2005, and Rahman the WBC and Chris Byrd the IBF in 2006.

According to CompuBox, Klitschko's 92.3 percent KO ratio ranks No. 1, all-time among heavyweight champs, ahead of Rocky Marciano (49-0, 43 KOs) at 87.8, Frank Bruno (40-5, 38 KOs) at 84.4, George Foreman (76-5, 68 KOs) at 84, and Wladimir Klitschko (53-3, 47 KOs) at 83.9.

Klitschko has seen the 12th round only once, during a decision in 2000 over Timo Hoffman -- the lone man to go the distance against him.

Klitschko has experienced 11 rounds only twice in knockouts of Ross Purity and Vaughn Bean, respectively; and 10 rounds once during a KO of Larry Donald. Klitschko has had two ninth-round knockouts and three in the eighth.

Klitschko failed to answer the bell for the ninth round citing a shoulder injury when he lost his WBO crown to Byrd, a fight he led, 88-83, on two cards, and 89-82 on the third.

Arreola, who has never been past the eighth round, has 88.9 percent knockout ratio that ranks among the best in division history. On Arreola's record are two wins by third-round disqualification, as well as a six-round, unanimous decision.

There are those who believe Arreola is simply overmatched, much like American Michael Grant was against Lewis during a second-round knockout loss in 2000.

Although the 6-foot-7 Grant entered their bout at 31-0, the big, strong, athletic fighter was dropped four times and proved far too inexperienced.

No one has been able to discourage Klitschko, who never has been knocked unconcious or off his feet, from fighting tall behind his piston-like, range-finder jab or from repeatedly battering opponents with punishing right hands.

Klitschko usually steps up his game during the middle rounds. Against Corrie Sanders, for example, the champion out-landed his man, 158-19, in total connected punches, and, 120-15, in power punches, according to Compubox.

"Klitschko likes to plant and fight off of his back foot," said Chris Byrd, "so Arreola has to take him out of his game plan."

The key for Arreola "is pressure -- period," said Byrd.

"If I was over 235, 240 pounds, like Cris Arreola, the whole goal would be to just be a pit-bull, coming forward and making Klitschko fight," said Byrd, adding that Arreola should "try to win rounds, not go for the knockout.

"You're not going to outbox Klitsckho from the outside," said Byrd. "Get him in the trenches, and, possibly, on the ropes to make him fight."

Byrd figures head movement, moving left, and an "up-jab" fired as Arreola's uncoiling from a crouched position could be effective against Klitschko, whose deceptive footwork comes from his days as a six-time kickboxing champion.

"Step left, step right, constantly move your waist and your head coming in -- but keep your jab going," said Byrd. "And if you don't have a good slip-game, keep your hands up and keep moving forward because you're going to get hit anyway."

A 2001 light heavyweight Golden Gloves national titlist, Arreola has occasionally displayed the skills of his past. And he has shown the fortitude to make a brawl of it, having gotten off of the canvas to stop Travis Walker in three rounds.

But Klitschko began boxing at age 13, completing his amateur career with a record of 195-15. And unless Klitschko's age, or the wear and tear of past injuries manifest, the pick here is the older man by late-round stoppage or decision.